Oil spike and AI selloff shred the everything-long trade.

Transcript

Tom Oil spikes eight percent, AI stocks crater — the everything-long trade just got a wake-up call. We're breaking down the pieces today on Investment Flash.

Marie Welcome to the London Edition, July 14, 2026. I'm Marie, joined as always by Tom and Gerald.

Marie Gerald, yesterday you were selling gold on the New York show. Today we're looking to buy it. What happened, a night of bad sleep?

Gerald Honestly, when the US starts dropping bombs in the Strait of Hormuz, my treasury safe haven thesis takes a back seat to pure panic hedging. Gold down two and a half percent last session? That feels like a gift.

Tom Ha — fair. And here I thought my portfolio was the only thing that could swing five percent a day. But seriously, the chip selloff is the real story.

Gerald Oh, come on. Your chip ETFs are down four percent again? That's practically a standard week.

Tom No, for real — Nvidia halving its Asia buyer list? That's a demand punch right when everyone's already jittery. The semiconductor ETF fell four point two percent.

Gerald Right, and with oil jumping eight point four percent last session on the Iran airstrikes, you've got the classic risk-parity blowup. Tech and crude crashing together — normally they offset, but not this time. The everything-long trade just broke.

Marie See, this is what I mean — the market's been pricing perfection, and now we've got a supply shock AND a demand scare hitting at the same time. It's the nightmare scenario for long-everything books.

Tom Exactly.

Gerald One hundred percent.

Marie That's the whole story.

Tom Yeah, but here's the thing — Nvidia's now fourteen percent below its fifty-two-week high, trading at sixteen times forward. If earnings this week are solid, that's a snapback waiting to happen.

Gerald Tom, you said that about semis in Q2, and here we are again. Sixteen times forward only works if the Blackwell ramp stays on track, and right now China's crackdown means half your buyers are gone — the addressable market is shrinking, not growing.

Marie Not so fast — Evercore ISI is out saying pick the 'least loved' stocks ahead of earnings. They're betting profit growth lifts everything. That could mean Nvidia bounces hard.

Tom Exactly! That's the counter-punch. The S&P 500 is only two percent off its high. Earnings could rescue the whole AI trade.

Gerald Alright, but the oil split is what's really fascinating. The oil fund USO up eight percent on war jitters, but China crude imports at a decade low. So which is it — supply fear or demand destruction?

Marie That's the tension no one's resolving. I'd rather play the periphery — gold or defense stocks like Lockheed Martin. They're still twenty-five percent below highs, less crowded.

Tom Speaking of periphery, did you see Nikkei's take on helium? US becomes the top supplier to chipmakers as Iran and China squeeze supply. Linde and TSMC benefit.

Gerald That's the most original angle of the day. While everyone's watching oil, the real supply chain shift is in gases like helium. Linde at twenty-six times forward isn't cheap, but it's an oligopoly play — they can set prices.

Marie And it connects to the chip selloff — TSMC down about two and a half percent in the week, but if they're securing helium, that's a moat. The AI story isn't dead, it's just getting pickier.

Tom One hundred percent. That's why I'm still watching Nvidia and the chip names. The selloff feels like panic, not fundamentals.

Gerald Tell that to Korea. The leveraged chip ETF there is down forty-five percent. Retail investors getting destroyed.

Tom Oh man, that's not a dip, that's a crater. The only thing guaranteed is retail investors losing their shirts — again.

Marie You two are terrible. But it does highlight the split — the Korean won hit a two-month high on Hynix ADR inflows. So institutions are buying while retail panics. Classic.

Tom Ha — yeah, I call that the 'welcome to the moon' trade, except they forgot the rocket.

Gerald I mean, he's not wrong. But that institutional retail split is everywhere — look at China.

Marie Exactly. China's green-tech exports surging over thirty-three percent in the first half, but domestic airline demand cratering and crude imports at a decade low. It's a split economy.

Gerald Yeah look, the solar ETF is down thirty percent from its high despite that export boom. That's either a screaming buy or a value trap.

Tom I'd lean value trap, buddy. If domestic demand is weak, exports can only carry so far. China Eastern Airlines is a sell.

Marie But Gerald, your bond doom-loop might finally get some company — no one's talking about the Fed. An eight percent oil jump and airstrikes, and SOFR futures are flat. That's the real tail risk.

Gerald Honestly, it's as if the rate market is asleep. If this passes through to core PCE, the rate-cut thesis unravels. And that hits growth stocks hardest.

Tom Wait, wait — so you're saying the Fed could actually delay cuts? That would crush my tech bounce.

Marie Look, that's the risk no one's hedging. Meanwhile, JPMorgan upgrades American Express because their rich clients don't care about gas prices.

Gerald JPMorgan upgrading AmEx after an oil spike — because nothing says 'safe haven' like plastic in a war zone.

Tom Hey, wealthy people still need their platinum perks, even when the world's on fire. AmEx at seventeen times forward doesn't look bad.

Marie Pff, okay. But it's not just a joke — the contrast with Capital One is stark. Cap One down eighteen percent year to date, their customers are the ones feeling energy costs.

Gerald Capital One at eight times earnings looks cheap, but this oil spike widens the consumer divide. Insulated versus squeezed.

Tom Right, and then you've got data center builders offloading stakes to raise capital. Digital Realty, Equinix — they're cashing in on AI hype.

Gerald Digital Realty down one and a half percent last session, still fifteen percent below its high. Capital raises can dilute, but they also validate asset values.

Marie I'm going to push back here — these stake sales could signal peak data center frenzy. But if AI demand is real, they're smart to raise while money is flowing.

Tom Either way, the money's moving. Blackstone just put five point three billion into Williams gas projects. That's a bet on energy infrastructure, not just oil.

Gerald Williams up twenty-two percent year to date, still seven percent off its high. That's a steady eddy play amid all this volatility.

Marie And let's not forget pharma — Dr Reddy's weight-loss drug trouble. That's a gift to Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, both down near thirty percent from their highs.

Tom Lilly only down half a percent last session, but the obesity pipeline is still the golden goose. Buy on competitor stumbles.

Gerald Fair enough, but let's talk bank mergers and acquisitions — First Hawaiian buying TriCo for two point zero one billion. TriCo up twelve percent on the deal, premium priced in.

Marie All-stock deal, so TriCo investors now tied to First Hawaiian's performance. Acquirer fell three percent. Dilution risk.

Tom Alright, circling back to the big picture — Evercore says buy least loved stocks. With earnings coming, the S&P could run.

Gerald But the oil-chip combo is a genuine threat. If Nvidia doesn't deliver, this selloff ain't over.

Marie And the Fed asleep at the wheel — that's the wildcard. If inflation fears wake up, the rate-cut trade dies.

Tom No but that's exactly my point — the market is too bearish. The S&P is near highs, earnings could surprise. Everyone's expecting doom, and that's when you buy.

Gerald Tom, your perma-bull hat is on tight today. But remember, Nvidia is already fourteen percent down, and the semis are leading. This could be more than a blip.

Marie Hold on — both of you are right. There's opportunity and risk. Which is why we watch gold, defense, and maybe the solar ETF if China's exports hold. Diversify, don't just pick a side.

Tom Exactly. One hundred percent.

Gerald That's the whole story.

Marie Nailed it.

Tom Alright, as always, none of this is investment advice. Do your own homework, folks.

Gerald If you're just finding us, hit follow on Spotify. Or check investmentflash.com for the full digest with charts and sources.

Marie We're back at nine a.m. New York time for the New York Edition. Catch you then.

Tom See you, buddy.

Gerald Later, all.