Monday, 13 July 2026 · New York Edition · 09:00 New York

Iran strikes rock markets, but Chinese AI is stealing the show.

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Signals

⚡ Convergence radar: Buy BABA×3Buy BIDU×3Buy KWEB×3

Chinese AI

Goldman Sachs released a framework picking Chinese AI favorites, while FT reports DoorDash, Siemens and Airbnb are turning to Chinese models to cut costs. Nikkei adds that Indian companies are adopting DeepSeek, Alibaba and Moonshot AI LLMs. The combined signal suggests a structural demand shift toward Chinese AI, with Alibaba as the primary beneficiary; BABA is up 14.7% in the last week, so the trade is crowded but the long-term tailwind is intact.

BABA

Buy Alibaba⚡ — Three sources confirm Goldman picks and cross-border adoption (DoorDash, Airbnb) favoring Alibaba; BABA +14.7% in the last week, so the move is already sharp, but the structural AI thesis supports a longer-term long.

$112.3 +1.07%
BIDU

Buy Baidu⚡ — Baidu’s AI platform stands to gain from global cost-cutting measures; stock +2.7% last week, and YTD -21.8% suggests more room to run if the AI narrative catches.

$117.5 +0.02%
KWEB

Buy China internet⚡ — Broad China internet exposure benefits from AI adoption tailwinds; KWEB -0.38% last session, -26.0% YTD, so far from overbought despite the weekly rally.

$26.38 -0.38%

Food Commodities

Bloomberg’s John Authers flags a double supply shock from El Niño and the Iran war squeezing food supplies, with US consumers already on edge over high prices. DBA is up only 0.8% in the last week, indicating the market has not fully priced the risk. A further escalation could spike wheat and agricultural commodities.

DBA

Buy Agricultural commodities — Supply disruptions from climate and geopolitics are a tailwind; DBA’s modest +0.8% weekly gain suggests the trade is early and not yet crowded.

$27.77 +0.22%
WEAT

Buy Wheat — Wheat is particularly vulnerable to both conflict and El Niño; WEAT +2.9% last session and +18.6% YTD already strong, but further price spikes are possible.

$23.72 +2.91%

Tech Rout

FT reports investors cutting bets on TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung after they swelled to 29% of the EM index, while Bloomberg’s markets wrap notes tech stocks led the selloff on fresh Iran strikes. TSM is down 3.9% in the last week and SMH only 9% below its 52-week high, so the rotation out of overowned chip names has room to extend.

TSM

Sell TSMC — Investor profit-taking on overbought chipmakers; TSM -3.9% last week and still 9% below the 52-week high, suggesting further downside as positioning unwinds.

$434.1 -0.65%
SMH

Sell Semiconductors — Broader semiconductor selling as Asian chipmakers lose momentum; SMH -0.54% last session and near highs, but momentum turning negative.

$611.0 +0.54%
EWY

Sell South Korea — South Korean ETF dragged by chipmaker selloff; EWY -3.3% last week, a direct proxy for the Korea tech rout.

$183.5 -0.67%

Dollar vs Bonds

Traders grapple with a world good for the dollar but bad for bonds, as oil climbs on Iran strikes, per Bloomberg. UUP is at a 52-week high, while TLT sits just 2% above its 52-week low, reflecting extreme positions. The dollar strength and bond weakness are twin sides of the inflation trade.

UUP

Buy US Dollar — Dollar demand strong as geopolitical risk drives flows; UUP only 1% below its 52-week high, momentum firmly intact.

$28.39 +0.11%
TLT

Sell Long-duration Treasuries — Long bonds hit by rising inflation expectations; TLT near 52-week low, the short is crowded but the macro backdrop supports further downside.

$84.47 -0.02%
IEF

Sell Intermediate Treasuries — Intermediate-duration bonds also under pressure; IEF -0.6% last week, reflecting broad duration selloff.

$93.63 -0.09%

Precious Metals

Bloomberg reports gold and silver dropped as US-Iran strikes raised rate-hike bets, with GLD down 1.3% last week and SLV down 3.8%. The short precious metals trade is consistent with the broader macro regime of rising real yields.

GLD

Sell Gold — Gold fell on rate-hike fears; GLD already down 1.3% last week and 26% below 52-week high, leaving room for further downside if rate expectations firm.

$377.0 -0.31%
SLV

Sell Silver — Silver dropped more sharply, with SLV -17.9% YTD, heavily underperforming and adding to the bearish case.

$53.95 -0.35%

Battery & Minerals

FT reports Australians rapidly adopting Chinese batteries for renewable storage, while Bloomberg details a new Beijing-backed mining investment firm to secure strategic minerals. LIT is down 5.1% in the last week, offering a pullback entry for structural demand growth in lithium and rare earths.

LIT

Buy Lithium & Battery — Lithium demand boosted by Australian battery adoption and China’s resource push; LIT down 5.1% last week, offering an attractive entry for a structural growth play.

$72.32 -0.69%
REMX

Buy Rare Earths — China’s new mining firm aims to tighten rare earth supply; REMX -6.5% last week, likely to benefit from strategic buying and a potential supply squeeze.

$79.76 -0.34%
FXI

Buy China large-cap — Chinese battery manufacturers in FXI benefit from strong export demand; FXI +3.0% last week aligns with broader China tech strength.

$33.48 +0.21%

Citigroup Turnaround

FT covers Jane Fraser’s restructuring of Citigroup with asset sales, job cuts, and closer Trump ties, but questions remain. The stock YTD is up 18.6%, so much of the turnaround is priced; hold.

C

Hold Citigroup — Restructuring progress is underway but no near-term catalyst; C YTD +18.6% already reflects improvement, so near-term upside limited.

$140.8 +0.87%
XLF

Hold Financials — Broader financials ETF neutral as Citi’s story is firm-specific and not a sector driver.

$55.71 +0.31%

HSBC Board-Lot Reform

SCMP reports HSBC’s board-lot reform under HKEX will lower the minimum trading unit, potentially boosting turnover and retail participation. The impact is likely gradual, but provides a low-risk catalyst for HSBC.

0005.HK

Buy HSBC — Board-lot reform expected to increase turnover and attract retail investors; a low-risk, catalyst-driven long.

0388.HK

Buy HKEX — HKEX benefits from higher trading volumes due to reform; indirectly positive.

Most original take

FT Companies · 13 Jul 2026

Companies turn to Chinese AI models to cut costs

Western companies including DoorDash, Siemens, and Airbnb are turning to Chinese AI models to reduce costs, undermining the dominance of US tech giants and accelerating the global adoption of Chinese AI capabilities.

Read original ↗

Our view

Today's signals paint a market split between old risk-off and new structural shifts. The Iran strike is doing what geopolitical shocks do: oil up, bonds down, dollar bid, equities off. But Chinese AI is quietly rearranging the tech landscape — Goldman, FT, and Nikkei all flag companies from DoorDash to Indian firms adopting Chinese models. That's a durable, non-cyclical demand driver that most macro models aren't built for. BABA's 14.7% weekly surge is telling you something the VIX isn't.

The case against: this regime can reverse in a single headline. TLT at its 52-week low and UUP at its 52-week high are crowded trades — any de-escalation or dovish Fed signal would trigger a violent unwind. And Chinese ADRs have run hard: BABA YTD still -27.9%, so the rally is sharp but from a deep hole, vulnerable to renewed regulatory fears.

We'd expect more coverage of US tech earnings next week, which could reset the whole narrative. Also, with China's new mining investment vehicle, a possible rare earth export ban is not even being discussed — that would spike REMX instantly. The press is oddly quiet on that.

The cleanest expression isn't picking a single ticker — it's fading the consensus: long Chinese tech proxies (KWEB) versus short US duration (TLT). That pairs a structural tailwind against a crowded macro short, capturing the divergence.

Friday's signals, today

From the New York Edition on 10 Jul 2026 — 2/4 signals moved in the predicted direction.

Today's scan: 170 articles considered · 12 surfaced · across 12 publishers

Generated Mon 13 Jul 2026 8:06am New York · 13,026 views

Bloomberg Markets · CNBC Investing · CNBC Markets · CoinDesk · FT Alphaville · FT Companies · FT Lex · FT Markets · MarketWatch Top · Nikkei Asia · SCMP Business · The Information · WSJ Business · WSJ Markets

Next edition: London Edition tomorrow at 07:30 London.

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